Tim Elliott Vs. Edgar Chairez: Noche UFC AI Prediction, Results and Highlights

MVP Boxing |  

Tim Elliott defeats Edgar Chairez via Unanimous Decision

Elliott is tough. He battled back after being hurt in the first round to inflict his own damage, and to work in his dominant wrestling. This has to be the leader for Fight of the Night. The judges got it right as Elliott’s wrestling was strong and he did enough on the feet to secure the win. Here’s some highlights from this war.

A.I. Prediction Summary

Tim Elliott and Edgar Chairez meet at a 130-pound catchweight that was agreed before fight week, not created by a failed cut. The Athlon Sports MMA Team prediction model evaluated the matchup without considering betting odds.

130-pound catchweight, three rounds.

The model read

Elliott can turn clean scouting into chaos, and his win over Kai Asakura showed that age has not erased his submission ability.

Chairez is nevertheless the side with the better recent curve: three straight UFC wins, first-round submissions of CJ Vergara and Bruno Silva, and a five-inch reach advantage. Elliott’s awkward shots and exposed neck positions intersect directly with Chairez’s best skill.

Because the 130-pound limit was agreed in advance and both men made it, the model treats this as a planned catchweight rather than a failed cut. Neither fighter is penalized under Weight for a miss that did not happen.

Key matchup details

Elliott entered 22-14-1 after a decision loss to Steve Erceg and a submission of Kai Asakura. Chairez entered 14-6 with one no-contest, a three-fight winning streak and nine career submissions, and he had never been stopped by strikes. Both weighed 130.

Camp and outside-UFC context

Elliott’s Next Generation MMA experience and long UFC tenure boost his Resume and Intangibles scores, where he leads. Chairez’s Entram Gym work is directly relevant to his improved takedown defense, boxing and choke transitions.

The prediction

PREDICTION

PROJECTED RESULT

WINNER CONFIDENCE

METHOD CONFIDENCE

Edgar Chairez

Submission, Round 2

59%

43%

Category / weight

Tim Elliott

Edgar Chairez

Style, 25%

84

86

Recent, 20%

72

91

Resume, 15%

89

74

Damage, 15%

69

86

Weight, 10%

73

88

Cardio, 10%

86

82

Intangibles, 5%

88

85

WEIGHTED SCORE

79.4

85.0

Deciding factor: Chairez’s five-inch reach advantage and front-choke threat against Elliott’s scramble-heavy entries.

Most likely alternative: Elliott by decision.

This is a lean, not a lock. Elliott wins Resume, Cardio and Intangibles. He loses Damage by 17 points and Recent by 19, and that is where the fight goes.

See Athlon’s AI predictions for every fight on the complete Noche UFC card.

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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Sep 12, 2026, where it first appeared in the MMA section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.