Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is the current pound-for-pound best fighter in the world and continues his quest to go down in history as one of the best to ever do it. He has a great opportunity to build on his legacy as he takes on Caleb Plant, with the winner becoming the undisputed super middleweight champion owning the WBA, WBC, WBO and IBF titles.
This undisputed title fight is set for November 6 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas and can be seen on DAZN and Showtime PPV. When it comes to Canelo vs Plant odds, it is the current three-belt holder, Alvarez, who is the betting favorite. The two men have already come to blows, albeit briefly, at their press conference.
Online sportsbook Bovada has listed the Canelo vs Plant betting odds for their upcoming undisputed title fight with Canelo Alvarez set as a -1000 favorite and Caleb Plant the +600 underdog. This means that if you were to profit $100 with a Canelo win, you would have to wager $1,000, while a $100 bet on a Plant win would net you $600.
Odds as of November 5 at Bovada
To emphasize the betting line we are seeing for this bout, Alvarez’s odds represent an implied win probability of 90.91 percent while Plant’s implied win probability is 14.29 percent.
Despite owning a perfect 22-0 record and having been the IBF super middleweight champion since January 2019, this is not the first time Plant has been a betting underdog heading into a fight. “Sweethands” walked to the ring as the plus-money option the night he won the title, taking it from Jose Uzcategui by unanimous decision. That said, he has been favored in every other fight that odds were available for.
There’s nothing overly surprising in seeing Canelo as the sizable betting favorite, which he has been in every fight since he was an underdog in his second fight with Gennady Golovkin in 2018, which ended in a majority-decision win. Alvarez has been a favorite of -500 or shorter in each of his last six fights since that GGG rematch.
With an extensive amateur career, Plant has a great jab and is an excellent boxer, especially when he has some room to work. With that jab, he can often draw out an attack from his opponent, following it with a crisp counter and often a combination that is his main method of winning a fight.
Sweethands has a bit of that Floyd Mayweather fighting stance with his lead hand low, which makes that jab a little difficult to pick up, and he rolls with punches really well in that Philly shell-like defense. He can get in trouble against guys with fast hands and big power as he does absorb some shots, but he can typically mitigate the damage with his great defensive skills.
To set up his counter and make himself seem longer than he actually is, Plant will lean forward with his hands low, begging his opponent to throw a head shot, then avoids the punch and attacks. Canelo’s fight IQ is on such a high level that he will likely not fall for that trap, using his feet effectively to get on the inside rather than lunging for the knockout.
Once Alvarez closes the distance, he should have a massive advantage. There are very few fighters that have the ability he does to stand in the pocket and avoid nearly every punch coming back at him while he rips the body and sets up his knockout blow.
Ultimately, I think Canelo will outsmart Plant, catch him in corners at times and start picking away at the body before delivering the final blow up high to end the night.