Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy: UFC 331 AI Prediction, Results and Highlights
Results and highlights are forthcoming. This article will be updated after the official result, while the original pre-fight prediction below will remain unchanged.
Arman Tsarukyan has spent years trying to force his way into a UFC lightweight title fight.
Mauricio Ruffy may be the last obstacle standing in front of him.
The two meet Saturday in a five-round co-main event at UFC 331 from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Tsarukyan enters as the UFC’s No. 2-ranked lightweight, while Ruffy is ranked No. 7.
Athlon previously covered the UFC’s decision to book Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy after a possible Charles Oliveira rematch failed to materialize. The bout now carries significant title implications with the lightweight championship picture still unsettled. Athlon has also tracked Dana White’s latest update on Ilia Topuria’s return, which makes Saturday’s result even more important.
Tsarukyan enters at 23-3 and has won five straight. His recent run includes a split decision over former champion Charles Oliveira, a 64-second knockout of Beneil Dariush and a second-round arm-triangle submission of Dan Hooker in November.
Ruffy is 14-2 with 13 knockout wins and nine first-round finishes. He rebounded from a 2025 submission loss to Benoît Saint Denis by stopping Rafael Fiziev and then knocking out Michael Chandler in the first round at UFC Freedom 250 in June.
That makes this one of the clearest style contrasts on the UFC 331 card.
A.I. Prediction Summary
The Athlon Sports MMA Team prediction model evaluates seven categories and does not consider betting odds.
Lightweight co-main event. Five rounds.
The Model Read
Ruffy is the more dangerous pure striker.
He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy, and his finishing record speaks for itself. Thirteen of his 14 professional victories have come by knockout.
Tsarukyan’s advantage is much more structural.
He averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, owns 75% takedown defense, and absorbs only 1.80 significant strikes per minute. He also has the kind of wrestling depth that can force Ruffy to fight an entirely different fight than the one he wants.
That is the central issue here.
Ruffy’s listed takedown defense is a strong 85%, but his loss to Saint Denis showed what can happen when an opponent gets past the first layer and turns the fight into prolonged grappling exchanges. The UFC itself has framed Tsarukyan-Ruffy around essentially the same question: whether Ruffy can keep the fight standing or recover quickly enough when Tsarukyan puts him on the mat.
Tsarukyan also has five-round experience.
He went 25 minutes with Mateusz Gamrot in 2022 and has shown he can maintain a wrestling-heavy pace across extended fights. Ruffy has never fought five rounds in the UFC.
Ruffy gets the model’s edge in Damage because his finishing power is dramatically more threatening.
Tsarukyan takes Style, Resume, Cardio and Intangibles.
The Prediction
Category / Weight | Arman Tsarukyan | Mauricio Ruffy |
|---|---|---|
Style — 25% | 96 | 83 |
Recent — 20% | 95 | 94 |
Resume — 15% | 96 | 82 |
Damage — 15% | 88 | 96 |
Weight — 10% | 93 | 92 |
Cardio — 10% | 96 | 83 |
Intangibles — 5% | 91 | 88 |
WEIGHTED SCORE | 94.1 | 88.2 |
Prediction | |
|---|---|
Pick | Arman Tsarukyan |
Projected result | Submission, Round 3 |
Winner confidence | 68% |
Method confidence | 56% |
Most likely alternative | Mauricio Ruffy by knockout |
Deciding factor | Tsarukyan’s ability to chain takedowns, force Ruffy to defend repeatedly and make the fight progressively more grappling-heavy. |
Ruffy is dangerous enough that one clean exchange could erase every technical advantage Tsarukyan has.
But over five rounds, the model favors the fighter who can dictate where the fight happens.
Tsarukyan does not need to outstrike Ruffy. He needs to make Ruffy repeatedly defend takedowns, carry his weight and work back to his feet.
That is a much more difficult assignment than simply keeping the fight standing once or twice.
The deeper the fight goes, the more the matchup appears to tilt toward Tsarukyan.
Athlon’s UFC 331 viewing guide has the full card, start times and streaming information, while the promotion has also made Tsarukyan’s win over Dan Hooker and Ruffy’s knockout of Michael Chandler available in its current UFC 331 fight library.
Prediction Model Formula
Each fighter receives a 1–100 score in seven categories:
Category | Weight |
|---|---|
Style | 25% |
Recent Form | 20% |
Resume | 15% |
Damage | 15% |
Weight | 10% |
Cardio | 10% |
Intangibles | 5% |
For additional Athlon MMA analytics, see Brian Mazique’s F.I.G.H.T. System glossary.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Sep 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the MMA section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.