Natalia Silva vs Cong Wang Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 332, Saturday, October 3

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City for a 14-fight card.

Check out my Natalia Silva vs. Cong Wang prediction for UFC 332 on Saturday, October 3, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Natalia Silva vs. Cong Wang Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, for a 14-fight card, featuring a title bout in the women’s flyweight division between Brazil’s Natalia Silva and China’s Wang Cong.

Silvia was initially set to face divisional GOAT Valentina Shevchenko, but the champion withdrew due to injury and vacated the title, leading to Cong stepping in as a short-notice replacement at elevation.

Silvia is 8-0 in the UFC and has proven herself an excellent point fighter, winning six consecutive decisions. However, most fans and media members thought she lost her last fight against Rose Namajunas in January; 67% of fan scorecards and 13 of 18 media members scored that bout for Thug Rose.

Cong is 6-1 under the UFC banner, including her win in Road to UFC, but she suffered her first career loss via rear-naked choke as a -950 favorite against Gabriella Fernandes in November 2024.

The promotion likely prefers an upset win for Cong; she owns a pro kickboxing win over Shevchenko from 2015, and the UFC would love to sell a potential MMA rematch between them.

Below, I’ll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 332 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these flyweights. They’re expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET (7:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.

Here’s my Silva vs.Wang pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Wang Cong comes into this fight on just one month’s notice, at age 34 — five years her opponent’s senior and two years older than the divisional average (32) — having never seen the championship rounds in her MMA career.

Silva only has championship-round experience from a Brazilian regional fight in 2019, where she won by fourth-round submission, but she also had a full training camp for this championship bout and typically comes on stronger as her fights extend, winning the third round unanimously in each of her UFC decisions. She can be a slow starter, and I expect her to be more effective in a five-round fight than a three-round one.

Cong is both the taller fighter (2″ taller) and the more efficient striker by the numbers, outlanding her opposition by 4.1 strikes per minute at distance, compared to 2.5 for Silva. Still, she relies on leg kicks to slow opponents and set up her punches, landing 32 of 42 in her last bout against Tracy Cortez, but those kicks may not be available in a southpaw vs. southpaw matchup, as they are in an orthodox vs. southpaw matchup.

I expect this fight to be extremely competitive early; Silva is tentative in the opening rounds while she makes her reads before gradually increasing her pace as the fight extends, while Cong is far more aggressive early, and she could potentially bank an early round or two on aggression and output.

If Cong lands attritional damage on Silva’s legs while winning the early minutes, she can limit her opponent’s mobility for the back half of the fight and potentially pull the upset. Still, Silva has excellent lateral footwork and is the faster fighter, and I anticipate that she will be difficult for Cong to track down at range (66% striking defense).

The early optics should favor Cong, too — she both carries more power in her hands than Silva and will be aggressive on the front foot, backing her opponent to the cage while forcing Silva to stay on her bike; unless Silva can effectively evade that pressure, I’d expect Cong to get out to a lead.

As a result, I anticipate that you can find a better live price on Silva than you can get on her pre-fight moneyline; she’s the younger fighter with a longer training camp and a more proven history of amplifying her output the longer her fights go; I expect the elevation to catch up with Cong in the back half of this fight.

Moreover, while both women offer strong takedown defense (90% for Silva and 85% for Cong), I view Silva as the superior grappler and give her a legitimate chance of finishing this fight via submission, even though all of her career submission wins have come by armbar, and Cong’s lone loss was via rear-naked choke.

Despite solid first-layer takedown defense and a decent top game, I do think Cong is still fairly green on the bottom or with her back against the fence, ceding more than half the fight in control time against Eduarda Moura (8:06), despite winning by decision. Moura also nearly choked her out in the second round.

Silva vs. Wang Prediction, Picks

I projected Natalia Silvia as a 64% favorite (-178 implied odds) in this matchup, so I view Wang Cong as closer to the value side of the money line; still, I would need something closer to +200 to back the underdog pre-fight.

As stated above, however, I think the elevation factor favors Silva, the younger fighter on a full camp with prior championship round experience, whereas Cong is older than the average age for women’s flyweight, on short notice, and trying five rounds for the first time. For that reason, I would target a live bet on Silva anytime after Round 1, with the optimal price point likely coming sometime during or after Round 2.

I do expect this fight to end inside the distance slightly more often than the odds suggest, setting that prop at +196, compared to listed odds as high as +210. And I show a correlated edge on Silvia to win by submission (projected +764, listed +1100) or inside the distance (projected +322, listed +400)

Despite showing value on the fight to end by finish, I would consider a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) with Silva and Over 2.5 Rounds (-135 at DraftKings) or her odds to win in Round 4 (+2200) or Round 5 (+3000); i think a decent chunk of her finish equity is tied to Cong gassing out at elevation.

Lastly, I would look to the takedown props in a matchup between strikers, as I’m surprised to find Silva’s Over 0.5 takedowns priced as a less frequent outcome than Cong’s prop; I would take Silva Over 0.5 to around +125, and Cong Under 0.5 to -150, compared to current odds of +140 and -135, respectively.

Sean Zerillo’s UFC 332 Best Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+210, 0.1u), FanDuel
• Natalia Silva wins by Submission (+1100, 0.05u), Hard Rock Bet
• Natalia Silva Over 0.5 Takedowns (+140, 0.1u), DraftKings
• Natalia Silva Live anytime after Round 1