UFC Edmonton preview and predictions: Can Mike Malott ascend past Joaquin Buckley?
UFC Edmonton is the promotion's second visit to Canada this year, and features yet another welterweight showcase.
UFC's shows north of the border of late have seemingly centered around rising contender Mike Malott, who’s fought exclusively in his home country since his third promotional bout against Adam Fugitt in June 2023. After his main-event finish of Gilbert Burns at UFC Winnipeg this past April, Malott now aims to get through Joaquin Buckley, who is hoping to climb back into the win column himself after back-to-back losses.
The co-main event is a high-stakes women's flyweight affair, pitting another hometown favorite, Jasmine Jasudavicius, against top contender Erin Blanchfield. With new champion Natalia Silva looking to stay busy, the winner will be well-positioned as the division awaits former champion Valentina Shevchenko's next move.
Overall, UFC Edmonton continues the October lull on this year's MMA calendar.
👑 UFC Edmonton's lineup Crown grade: D. 👑
170 pounds: Joaquin Buckley (+110) vs. Mike Malott (-135)
Malott really is UFC's new Mr. Canada, isn't he?
It's pretty stunning to see Malott get home-soil fights so often. If there's one sign the UFC backs you in a specific market, it's this. And that backing has paid off every time but once: Malott's infamous last-second loss to Neil Magny at UFC 297. Since then, Malott has leveled up to become one of the division's more intriguing, though still relatively low-profile, contenders.
Buckley, on the other hand, was humbled and brought back to Earth after a six-fight run against some opponents whose names look good on the résumé, but were maybe too far past their primes to mean as much as they first appeared to.
That ended with a decision loss to Kamaru Usman last June. Then Sean Brady continued Buckley's downward spiral, battering him from pillar to post in their non-competitive May clash. "New Mansa" seemingly learned nothing and failed to adjust between those two fights, and it’ll be massively important that he’s changed for Malott.
Malott is one of the more well-rounded competitors at 170 pounds and has begun honing his finishing ability on the feet. Dynamic attacks are usually a point in Buckley's favor, but Malott has the tools to deny Buckley space and keep him guessing.
Simply put, Malott has improved much more since his last loss than Buckley has during and after his recent stretch of fights.
Pick: Malott
125 pounds: Erin Blanchfield (-350) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+275)
A few years back, I made a prediction about the new era of flyweight. That prediction consisted of a title trilogy between Blanchfield and the new champion, Silva.
Well, we're suddenly closer than ever to that, and I'll admit I'm patting myself on the back.
Shevchenko is obviously still a live piece in this 125-pound puzzle, but Blanchfield aims to finally secure her first UFC title shot by adding another submission to her résumé against Jasudavicius.
That's Blanchfield's bread and butter, and it's never been a secret. She's the queen grappler at flyweight, and she's still improving at just 27 years old. Her setback against Manon Fiorot in 2024 was far from the end of the world; rather, it was a necessary reality check that led her to victories over former champion Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez.
Jasudavicius, however, is racing against the clock at age 37. She rebounded from her stunning quick-stoppage loss to Fiorot late last year with a solid performance against Karine Silva in April — the same night Malott last fought.
While both fighters have certainly shined on the mats, Jasudavicius has a good striking edge and uses her range well for the division. Expect her to succeed and keep space when possible, only to consistently fight off Blanchfield's smothering game. "Cold-Blooded's" presence will just be too overwhelming.
Pick: Blanchfield
155 pounds: Kyle Nelson (+310) vs. Cristian Perez (-400)
Nothing screams "Canadian gatekeeper" more than 35-year-old, eight-year UFC veteran Kyle Nelson welcoming a Contender Series winner to the Octagon.
Nelson admittedly has been a good fit at lightweight since he moved up in weight a year ago. Yet he's still 1-1, which comes as no surprise after getting into a car-crash scrap with Terrance McKinney. (Also known as just another McKinney fight.)
After starting his career as a connoisseur of rear-naked chokes, Christian Perez has become a lethal striker, putting away five of his past seven opponents. He's an active, high-octane fighter who presses the pace to a degree that doesn't bode well for Nelson, especially given the Canadian's susceptible chin.
It's a serviceable test for Perez's UFC debut, but one that sets him up to excel.
Pick: Perez
185 pounds: Marc-André Barriault (+170) vs. Kyle Daukaus (-210)
This fight just annoys me a bit, to be honest.
Marc-Andre Barriault has a nickname (“Powerbar”) that consistently makes me chuckle, but that's about the only thing consistent about the French-Canadian. He's looked great in wins, but those have been few and far between; he’s gone 1-5 in his past six. Barriault is that typical tough out, who stays competitive enough to maintain his roster spot without winning. That sounds harsh, but his record and performances speak for themselves.
It's a fitting rebound bout for Kyle Daukaus, who was crushed by superior wrestler Bo Nickal at UFC Freedom 250 at the White House. That loss is nothing to hang his hat on, and Daukaus can replicate the defeat and impose Nickal's game on Barriault here. As long as Daukaus avoids any Barriault bombs, he'll cruise to a decision or sneaky submission, working over Barriault against the cage and onto the floor.
Pick: Daukaus
135 pounds: Louis Jourdain (-190) vs. Timothy Cuamba (+155)
If you didn't know this was Timothy Cuamba's sixth UFC fight, don't worry, you're surely not alone.
Cuamba is a big-time distance striker, happy to dish out paper-cut-like offense until the finish materializes. He likes to lean on his solid boxing chops, but can hurl flying knees out of nowhere, as he did against Roberto Romero.
Louis Jourdain is also well-versed in the "sweet science," having dabbled in the sport for a brief spell. The younger brother of Charles Jourdain delivers nasty bodywork whenever he gets the chance and loves to dance in the pocket, making this a matchup of two wrong-ended magnets.
Both have clear weaknesses in submission and grappling defense, but don't expect the fight to go there. Jourdain's recent boxing experience and finishing ability make him the one to back here.
Pick: Jourdain
155 pounds: Mandel Nallo (-275) vs. Nate Landwehr (+220)
OK, this fight almost feels mean at this point.
Nate Landwehr, aptly nicknamed "The Train," has become a human punching bag over his three-fight losing skid. That's not to say Landwehr was ever a defensive savant. But he's 38 now and really wearing the years of damage — and now he's moving up in weight.
To make matters worse, the UFC paired Landwehr with get-or-get-got dynamo Mandel Nallo. Sure, Nallo is only a year younger than Landwehr, but he still has a sizable youth advantage in fight years. Nallo's UFC debut against Jai Herbert reminded us that he very well can be caught. That's just his style. But this is a fight where he'll have such advantages in speed, power and size that it won't matter.
Pick: Nallo
Preliminary Notes
Remember Katlyn Cerminara? Formerly Katlyn Chookagian, the one-time flyweight title challenger has been out of competition since 2024, and appeared to have retired as she entered motherhood. But at age 37, she returns to welcome Mackenzie Stiller to the UFC after Jamey-Lyn Horth withdrew.
Canada's Melissa Croden is also back in action at UFC Edmonton, aiming to build on some momentum in the bantamweight division. She's been a fun fighter to watch so far in her UFC run, but that only gets you so far at women's bantamweight. If you want to stand out in a big way, you have to start finding some big finishes, like she did in her UFC debut against Tainara Lisboa a year ago.
Quick picks:
Tanner Boser (+200) def. Jhonata Diniz (-250)
Nick Galanti (-600) def. Julien Leblanc (+425)
Javad Mahjoub (-100) def. Joel Faglier (-120)
Katlyn Cerminara (-300) def. Mackenzie Stiller (+240)
Steven Koslow (-150) def. Chad Anheliger (+125)
Melissa Croden (-300) def. Chelsea Chandler (+240)
Cody Chovancek (-145) def. Soo Young Yoo (+120)