Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Edmonton (Saturday, October 17)

Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz

Check out the Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz prediction for UFC Edmonton on Saturday, October 17, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The featured prelim at UFC Edmonton features a heavyweight clash between Canadian Tanner Boser and Jhonata Diniz, with the UFC attempting to book these strikers against each other in order to produce an exciting fight. That’s always a risk at heavyweight as gas tanks are fairly thin, but we’ll see if we can head into the main card on a high note this time.

Here’s my Boser vs. Diniz pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

This is the second UFC stint for Tanner Boser, who went 5-5 in his original run in the promotion before leaving on a loss in 2023. He finished his first UFC stint as a light heavyweight before returning to heavyweight outside of the promotion, picking up a single win, and being brought back to the Octagon the last time the UFC was in Canada.

The Canadian grew up doing Karate, and has a unique (for heavyweight) high-volume striking style, where he prioritizes touching his opponents as often as possible rather than putting them away with single shots. His significant strike differential of nearly +2 is evidence of that, especially when considered in combination with his mediocre record.

Watching most of Boser’s fights, you would assume his background is more in boxing than Karate. However, my read is that he’s fairly hesitant to kick in many of his matchups for fear of being taken down. The UFC has historically mostly matched him with strikers, but he’s 1-3 in fights where he got taken down even once. He attempted (unsuccessfully) his first-ever UFC takedown in his return to the promotion in April, before losing by knockout.

The issue with Boser’s style is that he’s threading a very thin needle. Without massive power or offensive grappling, he needs to consistently out-land his opponents in at least two of three rounds while avoiding big moments — heavy shots or takedowns — coming back at him. While he’s largely managed to say safe on the ground, he isn’t usually able to get back up, meaning those rounds are typically lost. He also doesn’t have an unbreakable chin anymore, with two knockout losses in his last four fights.

The good news for Boser is that the grappling won’t be an issue in this fight, as he takes on Brazilian former kickboxer Jhonata Diniz. Diniz transitioned to MMA somewhat late in his combat sports life, with his first pro fight at the age of 30 and his UFC debut at 32. He’s 3-2 in the UFC, with those fights going almost exactly how you’d expect: wins when he’s able to keep the fight standing, and losses when he can’t. Both of his defeats came via finish on the ground.

While Diniz doesn’t have massive power by heavyweight standards, he’s the more talented striker by a long shot, and considerably bigger in both length and weight than the occasional light heavyweight Boser. Diniz’s significant strike numbers are somewhat misleading since he’s taken much of that damage on the ground, and should be able to win on volume as well as power if this stays standing.

While Diniz’s ground game is still a work in progress, he’s shown the ability to escape to his feet against lesser grapplers on top of his solid takedown defense. Boser is pretty unlikely to force the issue in that department, so we should see a striking match between the big boys.

Boser vs. Diniz Pick, Prediction

The other edge for Boser might be his cardio, with Diniz throwing with a bit more intent and likely to slow throughout the fight if he can’t get Boser out of there. Boser’s touch-based style doesn’t have nearly the same energy requirements as throwing knockout blows.

However, if this one stays standing, I don’t think we’ll find out. Boser was knocked out in April by Gokham Saricam, and doesn’t seem to have the chin to carry him through extended striking exchanges anymore, especially with a fighter as talented as Diniz.

Diniz probably needs a finish here, but should be able to find one, making the +100 odds at DraftKings for him to get one a solid discount relative to his moneyline. The knockout is considerably more likely, of course, but at just +105 I’d rather cast a wider net and be covered in the case of a club-and-sub at a nearly identical price.

Billy’s Picks: Diniz Inside the Distance +100 (DraftKings)